Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea—As significant as all current pressures combined

Iréne Wåhlström; Linus Hammar; Duncan Hume; Jonas Pålsson; Elin Almroth‐Rosell; Christian Dieterich; Lars Arneborg; Matthias Gröger; Martin Mattsson; Lovisa Zillén Snowball; Gustav Kågesten; Oscar Törnqvist; Emilie Breviere; Sandra‐Esther Brunnabend; Per R. Jonsson

doi:10.1111/gcb.16312

journal article Open Access Jul 06, 2022

Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea—As significant as all current pressures combined

Iréne Wåhlström

Linus Hammar

Duncan Hume Jonas Pålsson

Elin Almroth‐Rosell

Christian Dieterich

Lars Arneborg Matthias Gröger

Martin Mattsson Lovisa Zillén Snowball Gustav Kågesten Oscar Törnqvist Emilie Breviere Sandra‐Esther Brunnabend

Per R. Jonsson

Global Change Biology Vol. 28 No. 17 pp. 5310-5319 · Wiley

View at Publisher Save 10.1111/gcb.16312

Abstract

AbstractClimate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre‐existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end‐of‐century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.

Topics

No keywords indexed for this article. Browse by subject →

References

24

[1]

10.1016/j.ecss.2015.05.002

[2]

Bergström L. (2019)

[3]

An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts

Norman Dalkey, Olaf Helmer

Management Science 10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458

[4]

10.1371/journal.pone.0180501

[5]

10.1007/s00382‐019‐04908‐9

[6]

10.1038/ncomms8615

[7]

10.1126/science.1149345

[8]

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139024

[9]

10.1038/ncomms14682

[10]

10.3389/fevo.2019.00211

[11]

The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, John F. Bruno

Science 10.1126/science.1189930

[12]

IPCC (2013)

[13]

10.3339/fmars.2016.00153

[14]

10.1007/s13280‐020‐01482‐x

[15]

10.1038/s43247‐021‐00115‐9

[16]

10.1038/nature08823

[17]

10.1093/icesjms/fsv231

[18]

10.1371/journal.pone.0225318

[19]

10.1038/s41893‐020‐0513‐x

[20]

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.289

[21]

10.1111/geb.12493

[22]

SwAM (2022)

[23]

10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.01.030

[24]

10.1002/lno.11446

Cited By

29

The world’s enclosed seas highlight the need for urgent emission reductions and societal adaptation

Matthias Gröger, Florian Börgel · 2026

Communications Earth & Environm...

Metrics

29

Citations

24

References

Details

Published: Jul 06, 2022
Vol/Issue: 28(17)
Pages: 5310-5319
License: View

Authors

I

Iréne Wåhlström

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden

L

Linus Hammar

Octopus Ink Research & Analysis Lysekil Sweden

D

Duncan Hume

Geological Survey of Sweden Uppsala Sweden

J

Jonas Pålsson

Kelonia AB Göteborg Sweden

E

Elin Almroth‐Rosell

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden

C

Christian Dieterich

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden

L

Lars Arneborg

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden

M

Matthias Gröger

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden; Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation Leibniz‐Institute for Baltic Sea Research (IOW) Rostock Germany

M

Martin Mattsson

Mountainlake Göteborg Sweden

L

Lovisa Zillén Snowball

Geological Survey of Sweden Uppsala Sweden

G

Gustav Kågesten

Geological Survey of Sweden Uppsala Sweden

O

Oscar Törnqvist

Geological Survey of Sweden Uppsala Sweden

E

Emilie Breviere

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden

S

Sandra‐Esther Brunnabend

Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden

P

Per R. Jonsson

Department of Marine Sciences, Tjärnö Marine Laboratory University of Gothenburg Strömstad Sweden

Cite This Article

Iréne Wåhlström, Linus Hammar, Duncan Hume, et al. (2022). Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea—As significant as all current pressures combined. Global Change Biology, 28(17), 5310-5319. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16312

Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea—As significant as all current pressures combined

You May Also Like