Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

Melissa Dell; Benjamin F Jones; Benjamin A Olken

doi:10.1257/mac.4.3.66

journal article Jul 01, 2012

Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

Melissa Dell Benjamin F Jones Benjamin A Olken

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Vol. 4 No. 3 pp. 66-95 · American Economic Association

View at Publisher Save 10.1257/mac.4.3.66

Abstract

This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries. (JEL E23, O13, Q54, Q56)

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References

Details

Published: Jul 01, 2012
Vol/Issue: 4(3)
Pages: 66-95

Authors

M

Melissa Dell

Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02139.

B

Benjamin F Jones

Kellogg School of Management, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208.

B

Benjamin A Olken

Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02139.

Cite This Article

Melissa Dell, Benjamin F Jones, Benjamin A Olken (2012). Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), 66-95. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.66

Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

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