Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat

Kurt Kersebaum; Joop Kroes; Anne Gobin; Jozef Takáč; Petr Hlavinka; Miroslav Trnka; Domenico Ventrella; Luisa Giglio; Roberto Ferrise; Marco Moriondo; Anna Dalla Marta; Qunying Luo; Josef Eitzinger; Wilfried Mirschel; Hans-Joachim Weigel; Remy Manderscheid; Munir Hoffmann; Pavol Nejedlik; Muhammad Iqbal; Johannes Hösch

doi:10.3390/w8120571

journal article Open Access Dec 05, 2016

Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat

Kurt Kersebaum Joop Kroes Anne Gobin

Jozef Takáč Petr Hlavinka Miroslav Trnka

Domenico Ventrella

Luisa Giglio Roberto Ferrise

Marco Moriondo

Anna Dalla Marta Qunying Luo Josef Eitzinger Wilfried Mirschel Hans-Joachim Weigel Remy Manderscheid Munir Hoffmann Pavol Nejedlik

Muhammad Iqbal

Johannes Hösch

Water Vol. 8 No. 12 pp. 571 · MDPI AG

View at Publisher Save 10.3390/w8120571

Abstract

Crop productivity and water consumption form the basis to calculate the water footprint (WF) of a specific crop. Under current climate conditions, calculated evapotranspiration is related to observed crop yields to calculate WF. The assessment of WF under future climate conditions requires the simulation of crop yields adding further uncertainty. To assess the uncertainty of model based assessments of WF, an ensemble of crop models was applied to data from five field experiments across Europe. Only limited data were provided for a rough calibration, which corresponds to a typical situation for regional assessments, where data availability is limited. Up to eight models were applied for wheat. The coefficient of variation for the simulated actual evapotranspiration between models was in the range of 13%–19%, which was higher than the inter-annual variability. Simulated yields showed a higher variability between models in the range of 17%–39%. Models responded differently to elevated CO2 in a FACE (Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) experiment, especially regarding the reduction of water consumption. The variability of calculated WF between models was in the range of 15%–49%. Yield predictions contributed more to this variance than the estimation of water consumption. Transpiration accounts on average for 51%–68% of the total actual evapotranspiration.

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Details

Published: Dec 05, 2016
Vol/Issue: 8(12)
Pages: 571
License: View

Authors

K

Kurt Kersebaum

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany

J

Joop Kroes

Wageningen University & Research—Environmental Research (Alterra), NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

A

Anne Gobin

Flemish Institute for Technological Research (Vito NV), B-2400 Mol, Belgium

J

Jozef Takáč

National Agricultural and Food Centre, Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, SK-827 13 Bratislava, Slovakia

P

Petr Hlavinka

Institute of Agriculture Systems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University, CZ-613 00 Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, The Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-603 00 Brno, Czech Republic

M

Miroslav Trnka

Institute of Agriculture Systems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University, CZ-613 00 Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, The Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-603 00 Brno, Czech Republic

D

Domenico Ventrella

Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria, Unità di Ricerca per i Sistemi Colturali degli Ambienti Caldo-Aridi, I-70125 Bari, Italy

L

Luisa Giglio

Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria, Unità di Ricerca per i Sistemi Colturali degli Ambienti Caldo-Aridi, I-70125 Bari, Italy

R

Roberto Ferrise

Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences, DISPAA, University of Florence, I-50144 Firenze, Italy

M

Marco Moriondo

Institute of Biometeorology of the National Research Council (CNR-IBIMET), I-50145 Firenze, Italy

A

Anna Dalla Marta

Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences, DISPAA, University of Florence, I-50144 Firenze, Italy

Q

Qunying Luo

Climate Change Cluster, University of Technology, Sydney 2007, Australia

J

Josef Eitzinger

Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, A-1180 Vienna, Austria

W

Wilfried Mirschel

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany

H

Hans-Joachim Weigel

Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, D-38116 Braunschweig, Germany

R

Remy Manderscheid

Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, D-38116 Braunschweig, Germany

M

Munir Hoffmann

Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling, Georg-August-University, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany

P

Pavol Nejedlik

Earth Science Institute of Slovak Academy of Science, SK-840 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

M

Muhammad Iqbal

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), D-15374 Müncheberg, Germany

J

Johannes Hösch

AGES—Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety Ltd., A-1220 Vienna, Austria

Funding

Ministerstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy Award: LO1415

European Cooperation in Science and Technology Award: COST ES1106

Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft Award: 2812ERA 147

Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali Award: 2812ERA 62

Cite This Article

Kurt Kersebaum, Joop Kroes, Anne Gobin, et al. (2016). Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat. Water, 8(12), 571. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8120571

Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat

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